"The fear in the marketplace is, to some degree, unjustified," said Jun Han, author of the study and a principal of JHP Capital, at a press conference at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel. "CMBS can be a very good investment if you are a long-term investor."
Han looked at about 20,000 loans in nearly 700 bonds and tested them against three historical recessions and worst-case scenarios. He found that most investment-grade CMBS will have low instances of defaults, losses and yield degradation.
And the fact that CMBS has "mortgage" in its name alone could be causing it problems, Han said.
Han also said that one thing the commercial real estate market has going for it, unlike other down cycles, is that there is not an overbuilding scenario. For example, 1% of commercial real estate's total inventory is under construction right now, as opposed to the recession of 1991, when 7% was underway. "There's really not a lot of construction activity," he said.
Concludes the report: "Commercial real estate fundamentals are strong and commercial mortgage delinquencies are near record lows. There is no skeleton in the closet: The markets are in balance, with construction low and demand still solid."
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