Nearly half of those who responded to this week's Quick Poll believe financial-services layoffs will "Destroy the Office Market" (49%), while 28% say the layoffs will "Not Have Much Impact," and slightly less (23%) believe layoffs will "Give Other Tenants Expansion Opportunities."Dave Odmark, an office sales and leasing specialist with Grubb & Ellis|BRE Commercial's San Diego office, thinks the biggest hurt on the office sector is being put on by residential real estate.
I would say it will have not have much impact. I think that the amount of space that financial institutions lease as a whole is not significant. If all the financial institutions cut back on their space, say 10%, the overall affect on the office market would be pretty insignificant.
It's not like the mortgage industry where they are completely shutting down entire offices. A slight bout of layoffs in the financial industry isn't going to impact the office market very much.
On the other hand, mortgage companies have definitely affected some submarkets substantially. It's already hit the real estate industry with homebuilders, escrow companies, title companies. It's the residential real estate industry that's really hurt the office market. I haven't seen the big affect from financial institutions. The real negative impact on office is all related to residential real estate development.
And the financial industry, it will come back from this. I think it's cyclical. They'll have layoffs and in a couple years they'll hiring again.
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