Obviously today's poor employment numbers foreshadow more badnews for the economy and real estate. Months of steady jobs erosioninexorably lead to reduced demand for office, deeper consumer gloomand reduced shopping center sales, less goods shipped throughwarehouses and distribution centers, slackening travel and hotelbookings, and more problems for the housing market -- fewer peoplecan afford homes even at lowered pricing. Separate from thecrisis in financial institutions, until we see jobs and wage growthagain, the real estate markets will continue to deteriorate. Theone-two punch of gridlocked lending and a stuck-in-the-rut economyset the stage for a very difficult 12-18 months, highlighted byvalue declines and reduced net operating incomes. Borrowerseating into reserves have more reason to despair. Bankers balancesheets show more red ink. And buyers find more resolve in waitingfor what may be a deeper cyclical bottom. The stock marketcontinues to take its lumps. Anyone still think commercial realestate can escape a correction?
I found the Republican Convention fascinating as always. Upuntil Senator McCain's acceptance speech all the speakers werepounding on "liberals" and "elites." Sen. McCain then takes thestage and claims he wants to bring everyone together for the goodof the country. "It doesn't matter who gets the credit," hesaid. Now we know his political team either wrote or cleared allthe earlier speeches, which were laced with similarhyperbolic rhetoric, the very same applause lines that Mr. McCainlater decried as "poisonous." Also for all the talk about Sen.Obama's lack of executive experience, nobody, including Gov. Palin,seems to be mentioning that McCain has absolutely none either.
As for Obama -- he tries to prove his mettle by going toe to toewith Bill O'Reilly on Fox. Is that comparable to spending fiveyears in the Hanoi Hilton?
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