The forecast of a five-to-seven-year drought came from Cushman& Wakefield EVP Augustus B. Field IV, who based his predictionon both a historic precedent and the global nature of the currenteconomic downturn. That precedent was the slump in leasing that setin after the October 1987 stock market crash, from which the NewYork market didn't fully recover until 1995, Field said.

At the other end of the time spectrum, Glen J. Weiss, SVP atVornado Realty Trust, predicted that "we'll start getting back tolife sometime in 2010," while Studley EVP David Goldstein and DurstOrganization SVP Thomas Bow both foresaw a downturn lasting two tothree years. Goldstein observed that the price of oil is droppingand consumer credit has loosened somewhat, but added, "this willtake time to work through." Meanwhile, he said, the currenteconomic picture is continuing to deterioriate.

The four leasing experts--convened for a REBNY "CommercialCrossfire" panel at the board's Mendik Education Center--did agreeon a number of things. One was that while each had experienced hisshare of cycles, the current one was unprecedented in the unbrokenseries of financial upheavals that lay behind it. "I don't rememberever being hit in the head so many times," commented moderatorFrederick Marek, president of the Vortex Group. Another concurrencewas that credit will remain tight as lenders cast a warier eye onpotential deals. "It goes without saying that you're going to see agreat deal of additional scrutiny," said Goldstein.