IRVINE, CA-”You were first into the recession, which usually means you are the first out,” says Nelson Rising, president and CEO of Los Angeles-based Maguire Partners, when discussing the economic state of Orange County at UC Irvine’s Center for Real Estate’s Real Estate Gala & Awards Dinner on Monday, Nov. 10. During his keynote speech, Rising was inspiring and optimistic about the future when discussing Orange County, without discounting the current slowdown.

“It is a challenging and daunting time to talk about the economy, which isn’t news to anyone,” Rising said. He attributed much of the crisis to over consumption. “Since the 1980s, Americas have consumed more than they produce and they have been able to do this by borrowing.”

Although Rising said that according to the current definition of a recession, it hasn’t hit yet, and will not hit here until at least Jan. 1, 2009, he says that if this recession follows past recession length averages, it should only last roughly 11 months. He did note, however, that “no one has a crystal ball” and that “only time will tell.”

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