"We had a great year up until the last quarter," says H. Dan Miller, senior managing director with Holliday Fenoglio Fowler's Houston office. "It was just in the past quarter that the credit crunch finally manifested itself."

That, and the declining price of oil were the big blame factors for the sudden halt in the area's booming real estate market. "When you go from $150 per barrel for oil to $50 per barrel, you're impacted," comments Randy Moore, Grubb & Ellis Co.'s executive vice president and managing director of the Houston office. "We're starting to feel that. We're starting to see, anecdotally, tenants saying they're not wanting to do a 10-year lease, that maybe they'll do a five-year lease with a right to cancel after 2.5 years."

Transwestern president, gulf coast & mountain regions Chip Clarke notes that a positive first half will still mean a great production year from a real estate perspective. Though deals are taking longer to get done, he points out, they are getting done.

"The main thing about Houston is, if you're living here and not involved in oil or real estate, you think it's booming," comments Sperry Van Ness managing director Bill Forrest, who operates out of the north Houston office. "We have a lot of new office construction and other construction."

Much of the construction was launched in early 2008, when demand for new space, primarily from energy and oil companies, was high. Construction on the far west side has been rampant. Meanwhile, Hines has launched construction on a one-million-square-foot office building in the CBD. Nearby, Trammell Crow is building its own 800,000-square-foot office structure, though rumors abound that Hess will take most, if not all of the space. Still, anyone who didn't have spec office buildings leased up by June or July, or at least have a good tenant commitment, could have some problems in the coming year, Forrest notes.

The experts agree that, in addition to the fluctuating oil prices, uncertainty is plaguing the market as well. As a result, the Houston real estate community will feel pain during the first half of 2009, but then things should start to look up.

"Our job growth has been very good," Moore explains. But if oil prices continue staying down, a loss of jobs could occur, he points out. If new oil field exploration and rigs aren't being engineered, engineers will need to be laid off. "That trickles down to those guys supplying pipe and rig apparatuses and every conceivable upstream oil supply company," Moore says. "They'll all see a marked decrease in business."

Clarke notes, however, while oil is a major Houston driver, it's not he only one. "The Texas Medical Center is still strong; it's business is still flourishing," he says. "And the Port of Houston's long-term prospects are tremendous."

But on the bright side, Moore points out, there isn't much in the way of overbuilding. On the industrial side, he explains, vacancy rates trend between 6% and 8%. "In the good old days, that would have triggered more development," he comments. "Here, it's being carefully watched."

Clarke agrees. "When you marry the three factors of oil, the medical center and port with the fact we're not overbuilding, I think you look around for a bright spot, Houston will continue to be it."

Instant Insights /

Oil Prices To Impact Real Estate in 2009

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