GAINESVILLE, FL-Consumer confidence in the state has risen five points over the last month to 67, according to a survey conducted by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Despite the bit of positive news for the state's struggling retail sector, experts warn that the increase of confidence may be short-lived because many retailers will have to file for Chapter 11 in the new year.

"One reason confidence has gone up is because it has been so low, reaching an all-time low at 59 this June," says Chris McCarty, director of UF's Survey Research Center, which publishes the monthly report based on responses from more than 400 residents telephoned at random. The rise in confidence this month has to do with the nature of the five questions within the survey, he tells GlobeSt.com. "Three of them are forward looking and two pertain to current conditions. As with the past month, consumers are confident that the new administration will resolve the economic crisis and that much of the intervention so far will work." Florida residents have absorbed most of the bad news relating to the economy and at this point are hoping for better news in the future. However, just because a turn around is expected it does not mean people will go out and spend, says McCarty.

According to the survey, perceptions of US economic conditions over the next year rose seven points to 62; perceptions of personal finances a year from now rose six points to 87; and perceptions of US economic conditions over the next five years rose five points to 78. The index of perceptions on whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items rose nine points this month to 71, adding on to the eight-point increase in November. McCarty says that perception is warranted based on discounts being offered by retailers, making it a good time to buy cars, appliances or furniture.

"The confidence that consumers see is short lived based upon a change in our president and low energy prices," says Christopher Savino, investment associate with the national retail group of Marcus & Millichap in Orlando. "In the long term, the retail market is still going to be tough and we're going to see a lot of retailers that won't make it through the holidays." If a significant number of national retailers file for Chapter 11, confidence may drop again, says McCarty.

The most recent rising confidence index will not have any effect on the halt in retail development throughout the state of Florida, experts agree. "If there are projects on the table, they will try to complete them," says Savino, but we may not see a restart in development until 2011 or 2012.

Despite the rise in confidence, perceptions of personal finance dropped to a record low of 39, according to the report. "That index has been consistently falling, and Floridians are reporting the worst financial situation for themselves since we started the index in the mid-1980s," says McCarty. That number is expected to remain low for at least another year given the current market conditions, including rising unemployment and lack of available credit, he reports.