(Carl Cronan is editor of Real Estate Florida.)

ORLANDO-Retail property fundamentals will moderate in 2009 because of rising unemployment and falling visitor volume, reports Marcus & Millichap. Even though construction volume will be less than a third what it was last year, there appears to be no avoiding a vacancy creep to 10%.

Negative net absorption is projected throughout the Orlando market as retailers close locations and curtail store openings. Vacancy increases will be worse in outlying areas, such as Lake and Osceola Counties, where population growth has slowed due to the sluggish housing market.

One million square feet of new retail space is slated for completion this year, down substantially from 3.3 million square feet in 2008, according to Marcus & Millichap data. Future development could accelerate when the economy rebounds as approximately 4.2 million square feet is planned, largely in areas between Interstate 4 and Florida's Turnpike.