Johnson pointed out to symposium participants that economists like to see various components stabilize because of indications there is a bottom in sight. For many, the bottom means that the recovery can begin. The recovery won't be painless, "but it will be better than people think," he commented.

What especially cheered Johnson was that LIBOR spreads decreased from the more than 400 basis points seen right after the bank meltdown last fall to a more reasonable 150 to 250 points above Treasury. Johnson noted that the shrinking spreads, combined with a favorable outcome of the banks' stress test process are showing that banks are solid and ready to lend to one another once again.

In discussing Texas, Johnson said that the state overall had stayed out of the recession until Q4 2008 for four reasons: strong population growth, a housing market that wasn't overbuilt, oil and energy exploration and the fact that the state is the largest import and export sector, second only to Washington State. Texas could have likely stayed above the fray for longer, even with declining energy prices, but when the financial crisis impacted international markets, it pulled the Lone Star State into the maelstrom as well.