Unfortunately, MBA is not predicting a rapid turnaround. "While the pace of the economic slowdown appears to be easing, different aspects of commercial real estate and commercial real estate finance are feeling different levels and types of pressure," it says in its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book for the first quarter of 2009. MBA did not return a call to GlobeSt.com in time for publication.
One of the few nods to a moderating economy in the report: the rate of decline for originations did slow in the first quarter, falling 26% from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009, after falling by 65% between the third and fourth quarters of 2008.
Still, though, the overreaching finding is that across most markets and asset classes, decreased demand continues to significantly pressure both vacancies and asking rental rates. All together, more than 64 million square feet of excess space was added to the apartment market, 38 million square feet to the industrial market, 45 million square feet to office and 101 million square feet to retail.
Retail properties have seen the most dramatic impact--with vacancy rates climbing to 16.2% from 11.3% a year earlier. Still, though, MBA noted every major property type has seen vacancy rates climb by at least a percentage point.
Other dismal findings from Q1:
- Reported cap rates in the first quarter averaged 7.4%--10% higher than in Q1 2007;
- First quarter originations were 70% lower than Q1 2008, at which point they were 53% lower than the year before;
- Every major investor group has seen originations fall, CMBS the greatest (-96%), followed by commercial banks (-80%), life insurance companies (-66%) and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (-26%);
- At the end of the first quarter, delinquency rates for many investor groups rose to levels higher than those seen during the 2001 recession.
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