Still, though, it is too simplistic to leave an analysis of the state of the industry at that. There are variations in regional and local markets that point to some--albeit--faint signs of life. There are also, as some optimists say, silver linings in the current downturn.

For the former, the Washington, DC region must be highlighted. Although the metrics for vacancies, investment sales and defaults are all heading in the wrong direction, the region is still benefiting from stimulus spending and the federal government's presence.

Even in areas in clear distress--such as southern California--there are signs of activity, although not necessarily what owners or brokers had in mind. Howard Schwimmer, Managing Partner of Rexford Industrial, for example, tells GlobeSt.com that while the southern California industrial real estate is not showing near term signs of stabilizing, more tenants seem to be back in the market seeking lower cost or downsized facilities.

"As vacancy levels continue to escalate, tenants and the few buyers in the market have become more aggressive in seeking lower rental rates and other lease concessions while potential buyers continue to seek pricing well below seller expectations. On the leasing side rental rate reductions are driven by a landlord's desire to stand out and fill space sooner than later, but hoping to do shorter vs. longer term leases so values can be recovered sooner."

Several recent sale transactions have helped to establish cap rate ranges in the 8.5%- to 13%-range depending on product quality, location and contract rents in place vs. market rates, he says. "While there now is more financing available for leased investment deals, low leverage and high interest rate floors will continue to facilitate higher cap rates in the near term."

Hugh Finnegan, a partner with Sullivan & Worcester, notes the obvious--that the capital markets are still frozen, especially for transactions in the area of $10 million or more. "The only sign of stabilization is that the commercial rents in Manhattan seem to have stabilized some," he tells GlobeSt.com. "If, however, there is increased unemployment in New York City, which many expect, there may be a further decline in rents."

Anthony M. Graziano, managing director of Integra Realty Resources-Coastal New Jersey, acknowledges the market's current difficulties--but does report some signs of stabilization. "We're seeing an increased level of co-investor activity where existing owners are seeking additional equity--with return preferences on first cash flow over debt," he tells GlobeSt.com. "Significant equity raises have been occurring at the REIT and institutional level to assist in the "deleverage" and pay down mortgages to 50% to 55% LTV on today's values."

Furthermore equity has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for sensible asking prices, he continues. "The co-investment opportunities are being tied to current and forward equity commitments to reduce debt if needed, which should soften the anticipated wave of mortgage expirations provided reasonable levels of liquidity remain available."

Investors have not abandoned real estate altogether, Graziano concludes. "Equity is just weighing the capital market options of stock-market upside with high liquidity, versus real estate fixed-investment with more risk and less liquidity. Redistribution of equity into the stock market will bolster business security--which ultimately will be good for real estate."

Instant Insights /

CRE Ponders Industry Future in Wake of Fed Figures

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