Both cities experienced poor statistics during the previous months. Figures from CB Richard Ellis' Q4 2009 MarketView Phoenix Industrial report showed an increase in vacancy to 16.1%, up from 13.3% from a year ago. The area inventory stands at 269.6 million, while absorption was negative 572,227 square feet.

Meanwhile, in Tucson, The CB report shows an inventory of 37 million square feet, while net absorption for the second half of 2009 stood at negative 331,372 square feet. The vacancy increased to 11.7% from 9.8% at mid-year.

The quoted average lease rates aren't all that far apart, either. Tucson's average ask is $0.53 per sf, while Phoenix is at $0.56. But here's where the similarities end. In reality, users are finding better lease deals in Phoenix than Tucson.

"Some companies have to be in Tucson, but some don't," explains CB vice president Tim Healy. "The larger users can lease space in Phoenix for close to half of what they might pay in Tucson."

Adding to the situation, Healy tells GlobeSt.com, is that 100,000-square-foot users don't have a whole lot of options in Tucson. "In Phoenix, they can find brand-new buildings that were never occupied, and can have their pick," Healy comments. "This definitely has an impact on us for those larger deals."

Pat Feeney, senior vice president with CB's Phoenix office, says other users are coming from California. The reason? "Users are saying they don't like the economy there and are afraid to make commitments there," Feeney tells GlobeSt.com.

Though Feeney isn't suggesting users from Tucson, California or anywhere else are coming out in droves for space in Phoenix, he does acknowledge activity picked up when the calendar pages turned. As an example, he discusses one user with whom he's working, who wants to buy space for more than 450,000 square feet.

"It appears to me they've been in the doldrums for five quarters, and are saying 'we get it, this is the new norm, we have to go forward,'" Feeney explains. "They don't have time to do a build-to-suit. That will take a year, and they want to be operational in a year. I think that type of thing is going to continue."

Healy, to the south, isn't quite so optimistic. The issue, he points out, is job growth; without job growth, real estate fundamentals will likely remain stagnant. "In our state, a large part of our economy has been based on growth, in-migration of people and things related to that, like homebuilding," he explains. "In 2006, the homebuilding industry got clobbered."

Feeney agrees that construction-oriented businesses were the ones that got slapped around most during the economic meltdown. As a result, what's suffering in the industrial sector is what he calls "little-guy space;" which measures between 3,000 square feet and 5,000 square feet.

"Most of those construction-oriented companies were garage businesses to begin with," he adds. "They have the luxury and ability to go back to the garage and they haven't come out yet."

Much like his Tucson colleague, Feeney says the smaller industrial space will likely remain stagnant until job growth comes about, along with more stabilization in the housing market. "The smaller businesses are not confident right now," he adds. "They don't want to commit to anything long-term."

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