"Two months of positive returns and one month of highertransaction volume does not allow us to discern a trend just yet,particularly in light of the fact that year-end commercial realestate activity can distort the true condition of the markets,"according to the report. "We will need to see data from the firstfew months of 2010 to develop a clearer picture of where thingsstand." Furthermore, the report notes that commercial prices arestill off 40.8% from their peak.

The 716 repeat transactions recorded in December, totaling $9billion, represented a 75% gain in count and a jump of more than100% by dollar value from the prior month. While higher salesvolume in and of itself can indicate that a market bottom may beapproaching, the report points out that December often records alarge upswing in volume, due to both buyers and sellers working toclose deals by year's end. "Last year was no exception, so we willhave to wait for transaction volume data in coming months todetermine if this represents a permanent turn in market activity,"according to the report.

Commercial property prices declined 29.2% during '09, with asignificant portion of value declines occurring in the first halfof the year, the report states. Price declines averaged 4.2% in thefirst six months of the year compared to 1.4% in the secondhalf.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.