What do the real estate markets and Democrats´ prospects for theNovember elections have in common? Well it´s not healthcare eventhough Republicans will tell you Democrat Congressional majoritiesare at stake over the monumental legislation which just passed. ByNovember, healthcare will be almost beside the point for theelection. What will be key is the state of the economy and the jobsoutlook. If recent stimulus injected economic growth hasn´tresulted in some jobs gains and improved voter confidence in thefuture for the country, the Democrats will lose ground-the moreuncertainty the higher the Democrat losses. It´s as simple asthat.
For real estate, markets desperately need an improved jobspicture to start to improve occupancies across flagging propertysectors and increase consumer spending in stores. The Novemberelections all come down to the economic track and speed ofrecovery. High unemployment spells trouble for real estate ownersjust as it does for incumbent politicians-that´s why Democratsappear especially vulnerable and real estate investors andborrowers continue to struggle through this protracted downturn andso far pseudo rebound.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
