The numbers, which have been compiled from Real Capital Analytics,represent an increase of 10%, or $17.3 billion, since Delta's January report and 33%, or $46.9 billion, since November 2009.
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The good news is that the rate of growth continues to slow and has,in fact, come down from its peak during the first half of 2009, whenthe total value was doubling every three months, the report concludes. This slowdown is due in large part to the willingness of lenders to pretend and extend.
"But the real test of distress velocity will come this year and in2011, as around $600 billion in loans come due and experts predict up to 350 banks may fail," the report says. Retail properties continue to be the largest segment of the distressedmarket, with $41.7 billion, compared to $38.5 billion in January.Also, distressed apartment properties grew the most since January--by$4.9 billion to $35.8 billion, or a 14% increase.
In terms of regions, the Washington, DC area remains relatively calm.The commercial real estate market here is in relatively goodshape, Greg Leisch, CEO of Delta Associates tells GlobeSt.com, because much of the area's distressed assets--37%--are largely concentrated in four companies: General Growth Properties, Opus, Tishman Speyer and Broadway Management.
Then, there is the fact that the region's banks are still very strong. "We just don't have the risk of many banks failing, which is where the problems are arising in states like Florida, Nevada and Illinois," Leisch says. "When assets fall into the hands of the FDIC they become liabilities to the agency, and as soon as real estate becomes a liability it is dealt with irrationally." By that he means real estate is a long-hold asset, but the FDIC process is geared toward selling off the asset as quickly as possible.
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