Year-to-date negative absorption Downtown has already reached1.8 million square feet, compared to 523,000 square feet at thistime a year ago, EVP Bruce Surry said at a media briefing Wednesdaymorning. For example, AIG gave back a block of half a millionsquare feet at 70 Pine St., its former headquarters building, andthat is now counted in the totals. But Cohen said that predictionsof Downtown's availability rate peaking at 21% assume that none ofthe space being vacated by major financial firms will be leased. Amore accurate projection, Surry said, is a peak of 16% to 17%.

That negative absorption may turn out to be smaller than feared.For one thing, although Bank of America Merrill Lynch hasn'tpublicly disclosed its plans as yet, it now appears that the firmwill have "some footprint" Downtown, Cohen said. FollowingMerrill's absorption by BofA in late 2008, the general belief wasthat all of its Downtown space—more than four million square feetamong three locations—would go dark.

In fact, Cohen said one of the submarket's demand drivers willbe large tenants. "There are about two million square feet of largespace users in the market that are seriously considering Downtown,"Cohen said. He declined to name all of them, but noted that one ofthem is rumored to be Deloitte.