(If you would like to see a replay of this event,click here)

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NEW YORK CITY-The recovery in commercial real estate is at hand.However, participants in the webinar "Commercial Real Estate in aPost Recession Era," sponsored by the law firm Schulte Roth &Zabel and Globest.com, related that some facets of the industryhave recovered quicker than others and still some sectors will takemuch longer to bounce back.

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Participants in the webinar were: moderators Jeffrey A. Lenobeland Gregory P. Pressman, partners with Schulte Roth & Zabel;and panelists Evan Denner, senior managing director, chiefinvestment officer/merchant banking with Cantor Fitzgerald &Co.; Paul A. Galiano, senior managing director, co-head ofacquisitions, dispositions, capital markets, JV transactions withTishman Speyer Properties; Ronald J. Kravit, managing principal ofCerberus Real Estate Capital Management; and Anthony Westreich,president and CEO of Monday Properties.

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Westreich was perhaps the most positive of the group, saying,"Real stabilization has happened this year both in the leasing areaand in the acquisitions area and the transactions side of the(office) market. We are very bullish about the future. We think in2010 you will see more stability and some growth."

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Tishman Speyer's Galiano notes that the debt and equity capitalmarkets began to explode in the last four months. "I think when youlook at cap rates, value has really come back dramatically." Headds that values in supply-constrained markets were down 40% to 50%in early 2010. "I think with cap rates compressing over the lastfour or five months you are probably seeing values come back 20% to30% on a number of assets and I think we are seeing that in recenttrades in New York, in DC and even in a recent trade in SanFrancisco, we're seeing cap rates come back in the 6% range andunder."

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Galiano adds that the financing market has "started to recovermuch quicker than we had anticipated" both in terms of rates and inavailability. He says that in the financing and capital marketsectors, the current market mirrors conditions in 2005 and 2006. Headds that on the leasing side, while activity has increased, thereis little movement upward in terms of rental rates.

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Cantor Fitzgerald's Denner says that while the financing sectoris improving, the combination of much fewer lenders in the market,the significant amount of refinancing that needs to be undertakenand the large amount of properties that are over-levered will putdownward pressure on activity. He adds that while banks are gettingback into the lending arena, most deals will be on a smallerscale.

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"I think that going out on a limb here I think it is a number ofyears before the market truly stabilizes both from the fundamentalside and from the capital market side," he predicts.

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Cerberus's Kravit notes that there is a lot of leverage to getdeleveraged and that while it appears the economy and the financingsector are improving, "you have to really be careful before youjust jump to conclusions that the whole world is better."

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He notes that while cash-flowing assets are attracting buyersand capital, financing for the fundamental commercial real estateproperties, such as strip shopping centers and small officebuilding properties, has not improved so far in 2010.

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John Jordan

John Jordan is a veteran journalist with 36 years of print and digital media experience.