WASHINGTON, DC-Two new measures from industry associations--American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations--add to growing anecdotal evidence that commercial real estate is entering a recovery phase.

The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index was up 2.4 points to 48.4 in April--its highest level since January 2008. Last month, AIA reported that its March ABI rating was 46.1, up from a reading of 44.8 the previous month.

First quarter 2010 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations, meanwhile, posted a 12% higher increase than during the same period last year, according to MBA.

Not that these are indications of robust growth or anything close to it. In an earlier interview with GlobeSt.com, AIA chief economist Kermit Baker noted that any score below 50 can’t be considered "good" as it indicates that billings revenue is still declining. However, the March rating was the highest score since August 2008--until this month. Baker was unable to return a call to GlobeSt.com about this month’s figures in time for publication.

MBA’s statistics also are a mixed blessing--Q1’s 12% increase is still 26% lower than during the fourth quarter of 2009. Some of that is seasonal, Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president of commercial real estate research, tells GlobeSt.com, noting that originations tend to be low in Q1 every year. "But they are still at very low levels compared to activity in 2005, 2006 and 2007." Part of the problem is ongoing low demand, he says. "Market conditions are still putting downward pressure on transactions--for many property owners there aren’t a lot of reasons to sell but there are a lot of reasons to hold onto a property."

Lending activity in Q1 was driven mainly by originations for office and retail properties, MBA reports. There was a 98% increase in loans for retail properties, a 29% increase in loans for office properties, a 5% decrease in loans for multifamily properties, a 28% decrease in loans for industrial properties, a 46% decrease in hotel property loans and a 68% decrease in health care property loans.

Among investor types, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase of 657% compared to last year’s first quarter. There was also a 131% increase in loans for life insurance companies and a 4% decrease in loans for commercial bank portfolios. Also, the dollar volume of loans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw a decrease of 49%.

 

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Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.