NEW YORK CITY-With a 133-basis point rise in the cumulativedefault rate for CMBS during the second quarter, predictions of an11% to 12% rate of securitized loans in arrears come closer toreality. Fitch Ratings says 9.48% of the fixed-rate conduit CMBSloans in its universe were in default at the end of Q2, whileRealpoint said in late July that $3.11 billion of unpaid loans wereadded to the total during June.

“Based on an updated trend analysis, we now project thedelinquency percentage to potentially grow to 11% to 12% under moreheavily stressed scenarios through the year-end 2010,” Realpointsays in its July 23 report. The agency says the forecast is drivenby the watchlist reporting and transfers to special servicing ofseveral high-risk loans “that continue to show signs of stress andare on the verge of delinquency.” Realpoint says the unpaid balanceof delinquent loans could reach $90 billion by Dec. 31.

CMBS loans from 2006, 2007 and 2008 have already shot past the10% mark and are expected to reach 14.8% by year’s end, says Fitchmanaging director Mary MacNeill in a release “Large, highlyleveraged loans are also adding to the rising rate of defaults,with 14 loans greater than $100 million defaulted in 2010.”