I recently had the pleasure to interview Tony Wood, aconsultant and CRE broker in Northern California who haswritten what appears to be the first significant book out about thecurrent commercial real estate downturn: “THE COMMERCIAL REALESTATE TSUNAMI: A Survival Guide For Lenders, Owners, Buyers andBrokers”.

In his book (available at Amazon.com and inbookstores), Tony provides detailed facts showing howmuch CRE debt is outstanding, and how many billions of dollars willbe required to refinance the coming waves of CRE loan defaults andmaturities. The book is an informative overview of currenttrends driving the CRE industry, and provides useful strategies forowners, lenders, brokers and other in the CRE industry. (Fulldisclosure: I knew about his book in advance because Tonyasked me to contribute to it, along with several other experts invarious aspects of the CRE industry.)

Tony's data, culled from many reputablesources, is being validated day after day — just today, GlobeSt.com reported that default rates on CMBSloans from 2006, 2007 and 2008 have already shot past the 10% markand are expected to reach 14.8% by year’s end, according to Fitchmanaging director Mary MacNeill.