CHICAGO-Unlike large property classes such as office or industrial, the conference by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care Industry was not all about uncertainty and flat projections. The roughly 600 attendees of conference, being held Wednesday through today, have been generally upbeat in an industry where demand is already expected to grow.

True, there was a decline in occupancy and rents in the seniors housing market during the recent Great Recession. However, development has been held to low levels, and compared to all asset classes except apartments, seniors housing is doing quite well. Of course, the increasing age of Baby Boomers almost guarantees rent growth in the next two decades. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics, said in his presentation to kick off the main conference Thursday that one statistic stands out. “The largest age group in the United States today is 50 years old,” he said

In examining the national economy, Zandi said the 12 months will “uncomfortable.” He said unemployment will probably rise into double digits by early next year. “The layoffs have slowed, but hiring has also stopped,” Zandi said. “We’re adding 75,000 jobs per month, but it’s not enough to keep growth stable.”

However, he says he doesn’t believe a double-dip recession is coming, and the current GDP, now up by 1.5%, will jump to 5% growth in 2012. “At some point in the next 12 months, I can see a company owner coming to realize that they’ve cut as much as they can, and the only way to continue growth is to start hiring. We just need to get to 2012. If we can get there, I think we’ll be off and running,” Zandi said.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, now chairman of American Solutions, charged up the crowd in his keynote speech about health care by talking about how the political environment change expected in the next few years. He predicted that in the November elections, Republicans will take enough seats to take control of the House, and possibly seven to 10 seats in the Senate.

This win will allow the Republicans to halt funding to various portions of the health care reform bill, effectively repealing the law. He was not kind when describing what bill authors were thinking when they wrote the 2,600 page law. “It’s going to take 159 new federal offices just to create the programs in this bill, and that’s not even counting the new required state offices,” he said. “The percentage of Americans who want this bill repealed is astonishing. It was a big sign, the biggest ever, when Scott Brown won the late Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.”

Gingrich said the next Republican push will be for common sense and truth, using a “Two plus two equals four” slogan. “When government tells us that two plus two should equal five, or three, we should be able to tell them they’re wrong,” he said.

During the conference, NIC unveiled a new seniors housing study that shows construction activity has slowed significantly across the country. Starts were down 32% from this past year, and down 57% from two years ago, according to the study.

The slowdown is more blamed on tight lending than on demand, said Charles Henry, research director for the center. “Today, you need a lot of experience, a great location, a strong sponsor and more equity in the project that was required two-to-three years ago. In fact, given the increased equity requirements combined with tighter underwriting, some projects simply are not feasible.”

Instant Insights /

2012 Bright for Seniors Housing Industry

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