ORANGE COUNTY, CA-Call it Lucky 13. For the first time in 13 quarters, Orange County’s office market posted positive net absorption, according to a new report from Voit Real Estate Services. Not only that, the Voit report shows the first decline in vacancy since 2006 and marks the second quarter in a row that at least one of the firms tracking the county’s office market showed positive net absorption in its quarterly survey.
Last quarter, CBRE showed a positive net while Voit’s figures still showed a negative net, albeit a much smaller negative number than in previous quarters. This quarter, both Voit and CBRE show positive absorption in the county’s office market, Voit 432,837 square feet on an inventory of 110 million square feet and CBRE showing 519,151 on an inventory of 100 million square feet.
Jerry Holdner, vice president of market research for Voit, tells GlobeSt.com that the positive net absorption is one of a number of signs of improvement in the office sector. Combined vacancy in both direct and sublease space dipped to 17.79% in the third quarter from 18.22% in the second quarter. “This is the first time since the second quarter of 2006 that we’ve seen a drop in the vacancy rate,” Holdner says.
Holdner notes that the 17.79% vacancy is significantly less than the 23% rate recorded in 1990. Other positive signs: “Overall, availability is decreasing and investment sales activity has increased,” Holdner says.
Kurt Strasmann, managing director of Voit’s Orange County brokerage offices, points to another positive sign. “We are finally beginning to see a decrease new available space being added to the market,” Strasmann sys. Available space on both a direct and sublease basis was 21.87% for the third quarter, down from 18.22% in the second quarter.
Despite these positive signs, the Orange County office market continues to decline in other respects. Both Voit and CBRE show rents continuing to slide, with both pegging the countywide average asking lease rate at $2 per square foot per month, full service gross, and both saying that the rate declined six cents from last quarter.
Holdner’s outlook is that lease rates will remain soft for the near future, and concessions in the forms of free rent, reduced parking fees, relocation funds and tenant improvement allowances should continue to increase to encourage tenants to act immediately. Like everyone tracking the office market, he cites the importance of new jobs as essential to any sustained recovery in the office sector. CBRE managing director Jeff Osborn made the same point last quarter when the company’s quarterly survey showed the first positive net absorption in the Orange County office market in 11 quarters. “The critical issue to us right now is job growth, and whether it will be sustainable," Osborn said.
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