WASHINGTON, DC-Republicans are going to take over the Houseof
 Representatives, pick up a number ofgovernorships--which is
 especially significant in are-districting year--but will not likely get
 the Senate.So said Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for
Politics director, one of the keynote speakers at the Urban Land
Institute’s annual conference, which is winding downtoday.

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Sabato’s track record is exceedingly good, so for all intents we
can skip the debate about last-minute surges anderroneous poll 
numbers and get to the questionGlobeSt.com readers most want to know:
 what will aRepublican surge mean for commercial real estate?
Normally this is a subject of greatest concern in a presidential
election year but the economy is still fraught withuncertainty and
 partisan passions are running higherthan ever. In short, even a 
mid-cycle election will haveimplications for the industry.

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The most obvious change will be legislative gridlock, Sabatosaid.
 Many of the winning Republican seats will be heldby so-called Tea Party candidates, who are in no mood tocompromise. There is zero chance 
of Congress passingambitious legislation in the next two years,
 Sabatosaid. “In fact, I doubt we could even see this next Congress
agree on language for a Mother’s Day resolution.”Controversial 
legislation the industry had beendreading, such as carried interest,
 is all but certainto be relegated to the backburner until after the
presidential election.

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Industry executives who favor a Republican-led Congress alsohave the 
long-term to look forward to: Republicans arepoised to take many--but not all--state governor seats this year,Sabato said. Because of 
the Census, that will put themin charge of redistricting, the impact of which will be felt forthe next 10 years.

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A Republican victory for the House will also be felt in moresubtle
 ways, said Joe Brennan, senior vice president atJones Lang LaSalle, a 
panelist on one of the ULIsessions.
 For instance, he pointed to the discussionsReps. Eleanor 
Holmes Norton and Jim Moran have beenhaving about the 
Department of Defense and its spacerequirements. “Norton and Moran
 say some of thefunctions of the DoD, with a lot of civilian
 employees,don’t have to have all of the security criteriafor
buildings, such as the setbacks,” said Brennan.“There are others who argue that, yes, 
the DoD does needthat for all of its functions. If the House goes
Republican there is the potential for a shift in those talks.”

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One factor that won’t change--even if there is a wholesale shiftin 
Congress’ makeup--are the demands for space by thefederal government 
for the next 12 to 24 months, Brennansaid. Even the swing space that
 federal agencies areoccupying temporarily as their buildings undergo
renovation and green rehabs is likely to morph intopermanent space.
“Swing space almost always transformsinto permanent space and my
sense is that is what isgoing to happen again,” he noted.

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After that 12- to 24-month period, Brennan said, the pace ofgrowth will 
definitely slow. By then, though, the impacton rents will be making 
itself felt, at least for theWashington, DC area as well as other 
markets where thefederal government is leasing up space. He 
predicts arise in rental rates due to the aggressive federal space
procurement.

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