WASHINGTON, DC-To hear the political pundits tell it, the nation almost doesn’t have to go to the polls today, at least as far as the House of Representatives is concerned. That, without a doubt, will be shifting to Republican rule--the only question being by how wide of a margin. The Senate is less set in stone, with a cautious consensus believing it will very narrowly stay under Democrat control.

Even if it does, though, the practical effect is still the same: political gridlock for the next two years. Even if Republicans can pass the legislation they are seeking, President Barack Obama will veto the laws he finds most offensive.

Still, for the commercial real estate space it is a mistake to dismiss the political factor until the next presidential election. There is much that the Republicans--as well as the administration--can do outside a straightforward piece of legislation, starting with the lame duck session of Congress.

If carried interest is going to squeak by into law, it will be during the lame duck session, says Real Estate Roundtable CEO Jeff DeBoer. “We plan to be very vigilant in talking with members of Congress and continuing to explain why this is a bad policy,” he tells GlobeSt.com.

Once the next Congress starts, DeBoer says, it is less likely that carried interest will be passed into law. “But we don’t think the issue will be completely off the table in January,” he adds. “In fact, the entire tax code will be up for review over the next few years.”

On the other hand, DeBoer says, some tax provisions the industry has been lobbying for might well come to pass during the lame duck session, such as the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act. “We could see burdens on local financial institutions eased and positive benefits for the economy pushed forward if something like this were moved across the finish line,” he says.

The biggest--and perhaps most subtle--impact shift to Republican rule will be in their influence over rule making and appropriations. Unable to outright recall legislation that has been passed in this Congress--namely the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul and the healthcare act--they will instead work to limit their reach. “Most of Dodd-Frank allows for a tremendous amount of flexibility by regulators, so you can see how big the impact of a new Congress will be,” says one industry executive who did not wish to be identified.

One area that is likely to see a revisit is the 5% loan-retention provision in the new securitization rules, this person tells
GlobeSt.com. “Most of the Republicans were pushing for more direct underwriting standards as opposed to the skin in the game provision. So we will see pressure off the 5% retention.”

Finally, Republicans are likely to stem the flow of additional funding to many business initiatives, predicts Mario Iglesias, a commercial real estate attorney and a partner at Roetzel & Andress in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. “Thus far, there have been significant federal stimulus funds made available toward certain activities that lead to improvement in commercial real estate, such as funds for green construction,” he says. “This type of stimulus funding will slow to a trickle if the House changes hands.”