CHICAGO-Buy early, or that gift-card rack at the local supermarket may not just be convenient, it may be the only place left to ensure a gift from popular stores. The recession taught retailers to be more efficient and space conscious, resulting in many stores and warehouses already stocked with holiday gear in the third quarter and not much planning for more shipments, says a Jones Lang LaSalle expert.

Kristian Bjorson, managing director of JLL’s supply chain and logistics division here, says fewer orders during the past few years has meant fewer imports, tightening ocean carrier capacity. Retailers planned ahead, buying in the third quarter and stuffing stock in warehouses, as well as stores already shrunken by smaller inventory configurations.

The bottom line: if the stores run out, they don’t have much left to offer until next year, Bjorson says. “This may also boost extra-ordinary shipping costs, as retailers wait to see what products shoppers want for the holidays,” he says.

Depending on the cost of the item, some products wouldn’t be too difficult to add shipments, such as the anticipated rush on the new interactive gaming systems for the Xbox and Playstation platforms, Bjorson tells GlobeSt.com. “If the value of the product is more than $100, they can afford to fill a plane. It’s more likely that apparel retailers will run out and lack stock, or pay upward of 50% to 100% rate increase for air freight,” he says.

Because there was already a high-vacancy rate in the warehouse market starting the third quarter, there also won’t be a large spike in occupancy, Bjorson says. “There’s so much hidden vacancy, you won’t even see it if a retailer adds an extra 50,000 square feet or so. You’ll see positive absorption, but not to the extent in previous years,” he says.