NEW YORK CITY-The retail sector’s availability rate is predictedto drop to 12.7% by the end of 2011, with CBRE Econometric Advisorsforecasting that demand will turn positive for the first time since2007, GlobeSt.com has exclusively learned. However, rents won’tstart growing at historical levels, i.e. 3% or more, until2013.

“I still feel that we’re in a tenuous recovery for theconsumer,” economist Abigail Rosenbaum with CBRE-EA tellsGlobeSt.com. “Certainly it’s been a healthy one in 2010, one thatwe wanted to see and expected to see. But unemployment continues tobe high. Job recovery has been going along, more recently at aslower pace. However, consumers feel that things are okay enoughthat they can go out shopping again.”

That being said, any sort of “shock” could put a damper on thatconfidence. While a double-dip is not in the forecast and CBRE-EAdoesn’t expect unemployment to rise much higher, “any sort ofuncertainty that the consumer feels could derail that recovery,”says Rosenbaum.