An analysis of West Virginia’s most recent demographic datareveals a State that is stable and predictable. The marketexhibits the following characteristics:
- The highest rate of home ownership in the nation
- #7 ranking for the percent of population living in the state ofbirth
- Population growth of 0.6% between April 2000 and July 2009
The slow, steady growth in West Virginia should be viewed not asinhibiting investment but as a variable in one’s market assessmentthat can be easily quantified. As a net lease investor, thisshould provide confidence that with careful analysis, anyfluctuations in this growth factor should not be enough tojeopardize your investment’s success.
For certain net lease tenants that target lower incomehouseholds, such as Dollar General, this is especiallyauspicious. West Virginia’s high rate of home ownershipcreates a large base of Dollar General’s target demographic that islargely immobile. This strong demand will likely mean continuedgrowth of net leased tenants like Dollar General and similartenants in the West Virginia Market.
It is no secret there is a scarcity of high quality inventory inprimary markets. This is leading to a “downward compressionof cap rates across all sectors.” If this trend continues, thestrength of these markets will no longer justify the inflated pricetags and slim yields of the assets themselves. Opportunisticnet lease investors will need to begin looking beyond these supplyconstrained markets to have any chance of earning a superiorrisk-adjusted rate of return.
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