It appears that the Egyptian military fully understands the situation and intends to have a well controlled transition which will allow the generals to maintain control even if behind the scenes. A lot like the situation in Turkey until a few years ago. If this can be done then it is likely the region will undergo a far more controlled and smoother transition to a more open and still western friendly set of regimes. World peace rides on this next stage of the unfolding crisis but it is essential to all of us that it goes in a way the keeps the radical Islamists out of the government. The generals may let the Muslim Brotherhood have some sort of apparent role, but no real power. The generals are not fools and they understand better than Obama that the Muslim Brotherhood is still intent on a radical Muslim government, and that does not work for the generals now in power. It surely does not work for world peace.

If all goes as it now is going and some sort of western leaning regime takes over, and the peace treaty with Israel stays in place, then a lot of good things will potentially happen. The rest of the mid east stays under control and oil prices stay manageable. Stock markets will rally, people will relax and investors will go forward. The money fleeing the mid east will still come here to be safe and that is all good for US real estate, especially in major east coast cities like New York and Washington. If oil stays stable and equity markets do continue to rally, then investors and the public will feel a lot better and real estate values will continue to rise.

The US seems to be entering a period of slow but upward growth, and deals are ramping up again quite rapidly. I have seen more new deals across my desk in the past three weeks than anytime since 2007. They even include major development deals. It is a total reversal of just six weeks ago. There are groups asking for my help to raise capital for new finance companies, ground up hotels, equity asset funds, and a variety of other projects and refinancing. A major workout of a large and complex portfolio I am doing is going as well as can be expected in that the banks involved are being positive and cooperative in their approach, and not looking to foreclose or take draconian steps. They are looking for good solutions and are willing to work with us. The attitude shift is very clear and positive. It is not that they are giving anything away, they are not. However they are taking positions that are realistic and not unreasonable and their approach is now let’s together get to a good fix. It is clear the shift is to build back their book, and not to crush good clients of the bank. That is hugely positive for the economy and values, but it means that there will be a lot less distressed product to go to market than we all expected. In that portfolio are assets that would have been surely foreclosed and sent to market a few months ago, but they will now get extended for several years and allowed to hyper amortize and to get worked out. I believe this is going to be the norm going forward where there is a very good sponsor.

A lot can still go bad, but as of this writing on Sunday, it seems to be headed in a good direction. That may all change even by the time this is published, but I remain optimistic now that a huge historic inflection point is happening and it will go in a way that is good for America and the world, and that the radicals will find they did not prevail. The historic changes in the mid east taking place right now will change how the world lives or dies for the next 50 years, so pay close attention. It will deeply impact your investments and your life.

Instant Insights /

Egypt May Turn Out Well After All For Your Investment

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