NEW YORK CITY-Although sales transaction volume is widely projected to show a major increase in the US and globally this year, it’s not certain how much of the buying will come from private real estate funds. Just 45% of institutional investors in real estate are planning to commit to the funds in 2011, compared to 62% a year ago, according to a survey of 107 leading investors conducted by Preqin, headquartered here and in London.

Of the remainder, 49% of survey respondents said they’re unlikely to invest in the funds this year, with 6% undecided. “The state of the real estate market, the drop in property valuations and the poor performance of private equity real estate funds of recent vintages would have influenced the decisions of those that are not planning to invest,” according to Preqin’s report, which also cited concerns over a misalignment of interests between fund managers and investors. The investors’ reluctance to commit is a carryover from their recent history: only 37% of respondents surveyed had actually made commitments during 2010, compared to 45% who had done so in 2009.

Reflecting the global sense that the US is where it’s at, as the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate said in reporting its own survey last month, 60% of North American investors surveyed by Preqin said they plan to put money into private funds this year. By comparison, 35% of European respondents said so.

Funds focused on North America also raised the most capital last year: an aggregate of $22.4 billion among 45 funds, compared to $13.4 billion by 44 funds that emphasized other global regions. Currently, 71% of North American investors and 59% of their European counterparts are below their target allocations to real estate, according to Preqin.

That global tally for private equity real estate fundraising last year was the lowest since 2003, Prequin said in January. The $35.8-billion tally was off 28% from the $49.8 billion raised in ’09, itself a challenging year.

Looking ahead, Prequin said investment plans vary depending on the size of the investor. One-third of those with assets of less than $1 billion are likely to invest this year, compared to 40% of those with assets of between $1 billion and $10 billion and 69% of those with over $10 billion.

“With market conditions remaining unstable, investors are still very cautious about committing to real estate funds,” says Andrew Moylan, manager of real estate data at Preqin, in a release. “If managers are to be successful, they will have to be very clear about how they intend to overcome the problems currently facing the market.”

Moylan notes “some encouraging signs.” For example, those that plan to invest this year intend to commit more than they did in ’10, and the larger, North American investors are looking to start investing during the first half of the year.

However, Moylan adds, “there are currently 425 funds on the road seeking an aggregate $139 billion in new capital. Our Preqin Investor Outlook study would suggest that there will not be anywhere near enough capital available to satisfy the ambitions of all these managers,” with the result that “further consolidation within the industry is likely” this year.