I'm always suspicious of reporters and editors who profess to know the mood of an industry or a portion of the populace or even an entire nation, but I will make an exception for myself.
It seems to me that the mood in the capital markets world is improving, based on what people were saying at the recent Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial Real Estate Finance (MBA CREF) Conference in San Diego. It isn't just that everyone is sick and tired of crying the blues or that they are guilty of wishful thinking. In a series of GlobeSt.TV interviews that will be appearing on our site soon, the folks we interviewed were generally optimistic about capital flows, lending for just about every sector and segment, and even construction lending in a few unusual cases.
Not that we've run out of things to worry about. Panelists at the opening general session of the MBA conference generally expressed optimism, but they also listed some concerns that ranged from the workings of the mortgage industry itself to outside influences beyond its control. Unknown problems that could crop up in Europe or Asia, for example, or the ever-present concern about interest rates, and the new troubles in Egypt (where, you might say, the mood is revolutionary).
Nonetheless, despite caveats and equivocation, a lot of us believe the mood and the reality have both improved. One of the most detailed reports about the MBA conference appears in the latest edition of FINFacts, an email newsletter distributed by George Smith Partners. The Century City, CA-based firm sent 15 production members to the MBA gathering, including all four principals.
GSP broke up into various groups and held over 50 private meetings with lenders in addition to the presentations, receptions and parties. Some of what it reports in FINFacts: "We found an abundance of lenders with record 2011 allocations and/or production goals." But the capital is not flowing as freely as it was before the downturn. GSP cites "more careful underwriting (for now)," stratification between core transactions and secondary markets/properties; collateralized debt obligations still not back in force and construction lending that is definitely "on a case by case basis and it better be a good case."
The GSP report provides more detail than we have room to mention here, but suffice it to say that it surveys what's going on with life companies, CMBS, bridge lending, the government-sponsored agencies, the mezzanine world and more. The underlying mood that I sense from the FINFacts report―and from other reports about the conference as well as remarks from speakers during the convention and the folks we interviewed on GlobeSt.com―is one that is positive in contrast to the bleak outlook that many were expressing just a year or so ago.
Before the downturn, you might have said that the mood of the industry was giddy. For a while, it seemed almost morose.
So, what's your mood?
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