WASHINGTON, DC-Figures to be released this week from Delta Associates and Real Capital Analytics will suggest that not only has distressed real estate reached a plateau, but it may be on the cusp of a decline. In short, the total value of distressed commercial real estate in the United States is now $175.3 billion, down from $191.5 billion in October 2010, according to data from Real Capital Analytics. This is the lowest level of distressed commercial real estate since June 2010.

The plateau for distress began in spring 2010, Delta Associates believes, but meaningful progress will not occur until next year. Furthermore, 2011 will be very telling as more debt comes due to be refinanced, Delta Associates CEO Greg Leisch tells GlobeSt.com. This year will also be a deciding factor for the stressed property--a category distinguished from distressed real estate, which is defined at properties in foreclosure and lender REO.

These properties are characterized by short-term problems, such as maturing loans, bankrupt tenants, under-performance or financially troubled owners--problems, in other words, that could translate into official distress. “We’re not out of the woods yet by any means,” Leisch says. Still, though, considering the state of affairs this time past year, the commercial real estate industry has made remarkable progress. “I have had bloggers and other industry watchers say I was nuts to call a plateau for distress but it is happening,” he says. “And I am positively optimistic we will continue with distress’ decline now.”

Delta and RCA’s figures show that the Mid-Atlantic and parts of New England are faring best. Baltimore has had the lowest distressed property per capita throughout the crisis and retains that position now. From October to December 2010, Washington dropped from $549 to $196 and currently is at $199 in distressed property per capita. Boston has moved down sharply from $637 per capita in December 2010 to $231 currently.