One of the occupational hazards of being a business reporter who specializes in one industry is that people sometimes think you know more than you do. For example, people in the commercial real estate industry sometimes say to me, "What's your view of the market?" or "How do you think the recovery is going?"
My answer usually falls somewhere between non-committal and evasive, for a number of reasons. For one, reporters usually hear more about action than inaction. People who are making news in the commercial real estate world call or email us to let us know about the latest deals they've closed or are about to close. Rarely does someone call to say, "I just wanted you to know that I am not closing any deals and nothing much is happening." The upshot of this is that it only takes a relatively modest amount of action to keep a reporter's phone ringing and email inbox full, creating the impression of a dynamic market—when that may or may not be the case.
Yes, anyone who reports on commercial real estate for 20 years is bound to have some opinions and some observations about what is going on. Some of them might even be valid. But there is a big difference between observing and doing. It's akin to the difference between being a war correspondent and being a soldier, or the divide between being the world's foremost reporter on heart surgery and actually performing heart surgery. Not that commercial real estate is like heart surgery. In fact, some say it is heartless.
Yet another reason that I hesitate to make pronouncements on the industry is that most of what reporters know is anecdotal. We learn about lots of individual sales and leases and developments and financings, yet it's hard to piece those together into a cohesive, comprehensive assessment of the market. Only when the market has reached a rip-roaring crescendo or collapsed into quiet are we sure of what's going on. Otherwise, we have to rely on the same economic reports, market surveys and statistical analyses that everyone else in the industry consults to get some kind of an overview.
So why do I say that it's an occupational hazard to have people think you know more than you do? Well, I hate to disappoint people when they ask me what's going on in the market. Most of those I interview provide answers to my questions, or else they say they don't know, or they can't answer because of confidentiality agreements. But they almost always give me some kind of an answer, even if it is to say that they know but they can't tell me. The least I could do in return is give them some reassurance about the state of the market, based on my special knowledge, rather than mumbling a pathetic, "Uh, geez, I don't know."
So that's why I call this an occupational hazard. Maybe OSHA can look into this and find a way to prevent the sort of mental injury that results from my trying to answer these questions.
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