WASHINGTON, DC-The US economy added 80,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, a relatively small number but still enough to nudge the unemployment rate to 9% from 9.1%. From August to September, there were 31,000 office-using jobs created; retail added 17,800 jobs and the manufacturing sector reversed its negative trend from last two months and added 5,000 jobs.
The Labor Department also revised upward earlier estimates from August and September, by a combined 102,000 jobs. The numbers are nothing to crow about, Kevin Thorpe, chief economist with Cassidy Turley, tells GlobeSt.com, but they do contain some positives. For starters, the revised job numbers from August and September point to a narrowly avoided double dip recession, he says. “Given the unnerving volatility in the global economy, that is a positive development.” Still, he adds, there are clear challenges ahead for both the larger economy and the commercial real estate industry.
For example, worries are stepping up about the tremendous amount of debt overhang that still exists. “And when anything doesn’t go according to script, such as the recent events in the EU debt crisis, we can expect to see business and consumer confidence plunge,” Thorpe says.
All that said, real estate fundamentals are continuing their dogged push to recovery, Thorpe added. If the rate of job growth from the last few months is to continue, there will be sustainable, reasonably-healthy growth in new demand for office, retail, apartment and industrial space created next year, akin to what the economy saw in 2004, he says.
Translated, that means the office sector can expect to see between 40 million to 60 million square feet in demand in 2012, according to Thorpe. In industrial, 60 million to 80 million square feet of demand would be created. Between five million and 10 million of square feet in demand would be seen in the retail sector, and between 100,000 to 120,000 units in new demand for multifamily.
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