Domestically and globally, 2010 will be a transitional year rather than a turning point for commercial real estate recovery, according to ING Clarion. In a recent media event at the company's offices at 230 Park Ave. in New York City, David Lynn, head of US research and investment strategy, said recovery will be "a gradual process, not a crescendo like the early 1990s."
In fact, late this year, the recovery will enter into the third phase of what Lynn described as a four-phase process, as lenders begin selling in earnest. Phase four, in which an improving domestic economy and stronger fundamentals lead to rising income and property values, isn't likely to occur until 2012 or 2013 at the earliest.
Until then, Lynn said, with capital still on the sidelines and supply well below historic averages, it's a good time for investors to edge back into the game. "When the whole world recognizes a bottom, it's no longer a bottom," he said.
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