WASHINGTON, DC-March wasn’t a stellar month for home ownership, given statistics from the newly-released Improving Markets Index, a joint venture of the National Association of Home Builders and First American Title. The newly-released Index shows that the number of housing markets tweaked up just a bit—to 99 in March, remaining virtually flat.

Currently 33 states, including the District of Columbia, are represented by at least one market on the list. New entrants on the IMI in March include Orlando; Rochester, NY; Columbus, OH; and Austin and San Antonio, TX. The index gauges these markets through several markers including housing permits, employment and house prices.

NAHB chief economist David Crowe notes that, after an extended period of growth, the March IMI held virtually flat at just under 100 metros. “This is consistent with NAHB’s projections for a gradual but patchy recovery in which some month-to-month softening is likely, particularly in places where the measurable gains have been very small,” he says. “The bottom line is that roughly one quarter of all US metropolitan areas are showing signs that their housing markets have turned the corner, which is a very positive development.”

The past few months taken as a whole, may be an indication that home ownership is becoming palatable again—and thus possibly dousing some of the fire that has fueled multifamily—continue to grow. Despite the stop-and-go nature of the IMI, however, there have been other signs that the case for home ownership is re-emerging.

The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index reached 206.1 in January 2011, the highest level seen since the NAR began keeping score in 1970—a fact that Jim Cramer recently cited as he advised investors to become careful of multifamily REITs. 

In cities such as Washington, DC where rental rates hover around $3 per square foot, the math is already coming in awfully close, Ari Firoozabadi, president of the Greysteel Co., a locally based boutique investment sales firm, tells GlobeSt.com. Renting an 800-square-foot apartment can be as much as $2,400 a month, plus utilities, he explains.

A similarly-sized 800-square-foot unit could be purchased for $400,00, or $500 per square foot. With financing at 95% at an interest rate of 4% over 30 years, the monthly mortgage comes out to be $1,815 per month. Once you tack on condo fees and insurance, the home owner is roughly at the same monthly expense as a rental, but he or she can still write the mortgage expense against taxable income. But, he says: “at times the option of mobility is priceless.”

In short, he is not worried about the DC multifamily market for a variety of reasons, including the expected increase in population coupled with the potential illiquidity of ownership. “There is more demand than supply in many submarkets, which will continue to fuel growth in the near term. We’re seeing condo conversions in many of the infill submarkets such as Columbia Heights, Petworth and Logan Circle, which depletes the existing pool of rentals as well.”

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Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.