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LAS VEGAS-ICSC’s Global Retail Real Estate Convention is coming up this Sunday through Wednesday at the Las Vegas Convention Center, but if you are (in any way) involved in the shopping center industry, you already knew that. But what you maybe didn’t know is what your fellow retail colleagues have on their radar screen for the market, and what they are expecting from the ReCon 2012 event. GlobeSt.com caught up with just a few.

Tom Lagos, SVP and director of the retail services group in the greater L.A. area for Colliers International, is expecting to hear a lot of enthusiasm about the recovering retail market while at ICSC. Most of this enthusiasm, he says, is fueled by the return of the debt and equity markets and retailer expansions, both of which can drive new and redevelopment opportunities.

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According to Mark Baziak, director of retail leasing in the Southern California office at Colliers, the bigger tenants that have been very active lately are dollar stores, and deep discounters like Ross , Big Lots, and Marshalls. “The grocers and fitness users are other active, larger tenants, however, they are conservative on their rent and/or are demanding high tenant improvements—especially the fitness users,” he says. “The big box retailer that continues to look at a number of sites and continues to complete transactions is Wal-Mart, however, they appear to be slowing down their activity as they digest their first round of solidifying sites.” Baziak continues that “The hip, quick service restaurants and banks—especially Chase Bank—have still been paying premium rents for the triple A sites and remain active in securing these sites.”

As for his ICSC expectations, he says it will be similar to last year. “Landlords, banks, tenants and brokers have slowly gotten on the same page, and expectations are more reasonable in these meetings and the types of outcomes to expect are as well,” he says. “We will see a mix of positive feelings and negative feelings on the success of this ICSC and how it went for all involved in the real estate industry. No lightning and no fire but better attitudes as we have had time to adjust to slower business transactions and shore up our debt where we can on the home front.”

Jenny Schuetz, a retail expert with the USC Lusk Center, hopes to speak with grocers and big boxes about changes they’re making when at the event next week. “The grocery sector is facing some potentially important changes…Non-grocery retailers like Walgreen’s are expanding their food selection, especially in targeted urban neighborhoods,” she says. “Big Box stores, notably Wal-Mart and Target, are launching smaller ‘neighborhood market’ stores that focus on groceries, while international firms like Tesco (Fresh and Easy) and Aldi are also making US inroads.” At the higher end of the income/price distribution, she says, specialty food stores featuring local, artisanal products continue to gain popularity. “All of these entrants to the grocery market could put pressure on traditional supermarkets.”

Pako Pimsaguan, a VP of architecture for the Plump Group, expects to see an increase in tenant improvements and renovations of vacant spaces for the remainder of 2012. “Retailers are looking to position themselves on a better location or improve on their current location. We see most of this movement with the discount retailers, neighborhood convenience stores and fast food or casual dining restaurants,” he says.

In terms of buyer activity, Matthew Mousavi, director of the investment advisory group at Faris Lee Investments, says it is increasing due to a favorable interest rate environment, compressing cap rates, and the underperformance of alternative investments, all of which, he says, are attracting a diverse base of buyers into retail investments.

Faris Lee’s Nicholas Coo, senior managing director of the investment advisory group, tells GlobeSt.com that he sees an influx of international capital coming from countries like Canada, Korea and China, more so than previous quarters or years. “Foreign capital investment in US real estate will remain aggressive into the foreseeable future. Additionally, domestic investors are seeking shelter in real estate due to the lack of confidence in corporate stocks and bonds,” he says. For this reason, Coo has seen an uptick in first-time retail investment buyers who are looking for more stable returns, control and transparency. 

The market for single tenant net leased properties in the first four months of this year has been very robust, Maurice Nieman, VP of investment sales and retail services for Colliers NNN Group, tells GlobeSt.com. “We have seen cap rates continue to compress,” he says. “For example, drug store NNN assets such as Rite Aid properties have traded in the high 8 cap range. Compared to a year ago, the same asset would have sold at 100 basis point higher.”

The high volume of strategic planning work that Encon Construction Services Inc. has done with retailers and developers over the last year, leads president Michael Volchok to forecast an upward trend in commercial construction for 2012.

Like many of the sources we spoke with, Joseph Boehm III, EVP of retail leasing at Forest City, is optimistic in his retail outlook. "While the retail industry maintains a cautiously optimistic yet pragmatic outlook, there are encouraging signs of growth in some areas, including home goods, outlet centers and several restaurant chains." At RECon this year, Boehm expects increased expectations of better growth in new store openings over the next couple of years, and "overall activity and attitude will be more positive than it has been the last few years," he says.