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WASHINGTON, DC-Another voice has weighed in on the one subject that unites even the most disparate industry sectors and political affiliations: the rate of job creation in the US economy. The National Association of Business Economists is projecting moderate growth in the near term with improvement coming after the election.

Specifically, it has raised its job-creation outlook to 188,000 per month, from an earlier estimate of 170,000 per month. The growth outlook, in a larger sense, however, is a mixed bag: expectations for housing, vehicle sales, employment and industrial production have all improved, says NABE Outlook Survey chair Shawn DuBravac, in a prepared statement.

However, DuBravac, who is also the chief economist at the Consumer Electronics Association, goes on to note that expectations for overall economic growth, such as inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, business investment and consumer spending, remain below historical norms. For the commercial real estate industry, the job numbers are, of course, most critical. Even at 188,000--which is less than the 200,000-plus the economy had been clocking at the beginning of the year--vacancies should continue to erode. Cassidy Turley has projected that with the addition of 125,000 to 150,000 jobs per month, commercial real estate vacancies could drop 50 to 100 basis points in most sectors.

Or put another way, every 20,000 office-using jobs added to the economy translates into 10 million to 15 million square feet of new office space. On a market-by-market basis, this relatively positive outlook becomes a bit more varied, however, Scott Homa, research director for Jones Lang LaSalle, tells GlobeSt.com.

"The gradual recovery continues to have a meaningful impact on the US commercial real estate market," he says. "The employment gains have been segmented by industry, and technology, energy and healthcare-related businesses continue to grow at the most rapid pace." That is good news for office markets in California and Texas, which benefit from a high concentration of tech and energy businesses.

It's not-so-good news, though, for two important real estate markets in the US: Washington DC and New York City. While these cities led the national recovery in 2010, they are now falling behind in terms of office-market performance because of their respective focuses in the federal government and financial services.

"Together, DC and New York comprise more than 20% of the nation's office market, yet both have been contracting for close to six months now due to the underlying slowdown in federal government and financial sector demand," Homa concludes.