WASHINGTON, DC-After Friday’s disappointing job numbers, even the economic bulls are sticking a fork in the economic recovery: it is, in other words, done, at least for now. So on to plan B (or C, F or G, depending on how you are counting). It is widely expected the Federal Reserve Bank, after adopting a wait-and-see attitude to more monetary stimulus a few short weeks ago is likely to get its tool box out again.

“The recovery has clearly lost its mojo,” Kevin Thorpe, chief economist with Cassidy Turley, tells GlobeSt.com. “Consumers and businesses are uncomfortable with the lack of visibility, especially on policy and the deficit, so they're pausing.”

The Fed was already leaning towards QE3, he continues: “This report provides further ammunition to move forward with another round of monetary stimulus.”

Indeed, as GlobeSt.com reported, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, at his annual speech at Jackson Hole, WY, expressed reservations about the job numbers. “The rate of improvement in the labor market has been painfully slow,” he said.

However, as Thorpe pointed out, this latest report’s details were worse than the headline job numbers. “Temporary employment declined, the labor force shrunk substantially, and hourly wages didn’t move.” For CRE, Thorpe says, this is especially bad news. “Unfortunately, when the labor market lays an egg, so does commercial real estate. Everyone should expect that the demand metrics for the property markets will slow over the coming months.”

The good news, and Thorpe says there is some, is that real economic engines--energy, technology, manufacturing, housing--are still percolating below the surface. That, though, is probably not a tangible enough timeline for the Fed. When QE3 does begin (and so many economists, not just Thorpe, expect it) the impact will be clear. As with previous rounds, there will almost certainly be continued pressure on Treasury yields and declines in the yields on both corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Bernanke said as much himself in his Jackson Hole speech, as he described the impact of earlier quantitative easing measures.

For the record, there have been four major initiatives. In late 2008 the Federal Reserve announced a program to purchase a total of $600 billion in agency MBS and agency debt. In March 2009, it expanded this purchase program, announcing that it would purchase up to $1.25 trillion of agency MBS, up to $200 billion of agency debt, and up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury debt. This round was over by early 2010.

Then, in November 2010, the Federal Reserve announced that it would further expand the Federal Reserve’s security holdings by purchasing an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over a period ending in mid-2011. About a year ago, the Fed introduced a variation on its earlier purchase programs called the maturity extension program. Using it, the Federal Reserve said it would purchase $400 billion of long-term Treasury securities and sell an equivalent amount of shorter-term Treasury securities. That program has been extended through the end of this year, Bernanke said.

“By reducing the average maturity of the securities held by the public, the MEP puts additional downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and further eases overall financial conditions,” he said. In general, he added, the Federal Reserve’s large-scale purchases have significantly lowered long-term Treasury yields.

“Three studies considering the cumulative influence of all the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases, including those made under the MEP, found total effects between 80 and 120 basis points on the 10-year Treasury yield," he noted. "These effects are economically meaningful.”

Nor do the effects of the asset purchases appear to be confined to longer-term Treasury yields, he added, pointing to “significant declines in the yields on both corporate bonds and MBS. The first purchase program, in particular, has been linked to substantial reductions in MBS yields and retail mortgage rates.”