WASHINGTON, DC-Watching the Architecture Billings Index sway back and forth this year has given the commercial real estate industry a case of collective vertigo. Its latest permutation? It is swinging into positive terrain. Again. Last week the ABI climbed nearly three points, reaching 50.2. It is an important leading economic indicator for the industry because it reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. A positive score, even a barely positive one, reflects an increase in demand for design services. The new projects inquiry index was 57.2, up from mark of 56.3 the previous month.

AIA chief economist Kermit Baker, though, is hardly breaking out the champagne. “Until the economy is on firmer ground, there aren’t likely to be strong increases in demand for design services,” he says in a prepared statement. “In the meantime, we can expect to see design activity alternate between modest growth and modest decline.” Unfortunately many of the current signs are like the ABI—lukewarm but trending positive.

Also last week, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose by 3 points to 40. That score was the highest since June 2006. Even better for the CRE industry, earlier this month the Multifamily Production Index, also released by the National Association of Home Builders, posted an improvement for the eighth consecutive quarter with an index level of 54. That was the highest reading since the second quarter of 2005.

Three weeks ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association gave the industry a mixed bag of statistics: Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates were still dropping for banks, yet rising for CMBS during the second quarter of 2012. Delinquency rates also declined for Fannie Mae during the second quarter, and increased by 0.01 percentage points for life companies and 0.04 percentage points for Freddie Mac.

The most telling statistic, though, is a newly-released negative one. Construction employment declined in 30 states from August 2011 to August 2012 and in 26 states in the past month, according to an analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America of Labor Department data. New Mexico had the steepest percentage decline among states that lost construction jobs for the month, followed by Alaska and Connecticut. On the other hand, 24 states plus D.C. added construction jobs between July and August. The highest percentage gains for the month occurred in Arkansas followed by Hawaii and Mississippi.

In this case, though, the economic doldrums are due in part to Washington policy, with association officials pointing to its failure to act on a number of infrastructure and tax measures. "Not only are Washington officials failing to make tough choices on infrastructure funding, they aren't even taking care of essential measures like setting tax rates and keeping our clean water systems up to date,” said Stephen E. Sandherr, the association's chief executive officer. “Construction employment suffers when firms can't anticipate future demand or know how much they will have to pay in taxes.”