WASHINGTON, DC-Libor, the world’s most ubiquitous lending rate--the commercial world, that is--is poised for change. On Friday the UK Financial Services Authority delivered a 10-point plan to fix the benchmark rate—a move short of scraping it and starting over, which was deemed all but impossible given how entrenched it is.
New rate-setting guidelines will be issued in March by the International Organization of Securities Commission—guidelines that will be the result of collaboration between the FSA and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The proposed reforms understandably are wide-sweeping, ranging from the theoretical (“market participants should be encouraged to consider and examine their present use of LIBOR as a reference rate,” the FSA report said) to the practical (“publication of individual submission is delayed by at least three months on a rolling basis, with the information remaining available to the oversight committee, the new rate administrator, and the FSA.”)
While the proposal is a lot to digest and much behind-the-scenes wrangling will take place before its final shape is revealed, thus far the commercial real estate industry has reacted with equanimity. Why? For the simple reason that despite reports of Libor’s manipulation, there has been no clear cut evidence that deals in this industry were hurt.
On the contrary, says Sam Chandan, principal of Chandan Economics and a professor at the Wharton School, the data suggest borrowers benchmarked to Libor benefited from marginally lower rates. “Our tracking of construction loans shows no clearly observable impact from the scandal,” he tells GlobeSt.com. “Construction lending is up; the primary drags are still the weak fundamentals outlook.” Even if Libor were to fall out of popular usage over time, there are many more verifiable and transparent benchmarks that could take its place, he adds.
“It just hasn’t been a big problem to date,” Bill Hughes, SVP and managing director of Marcus & Millichap Capital Corp., says of the controversy surrounding Libor these past several months. At bottom, he explains, Libor is just an index, something to measure rates against. “It is the all in rate that is important.”
To be sure, other industries are more sensitive to its fluctuations, starting with, ironically, the banking industry. In the real estate industry, though, a few basis points one way or another will not impact a deal because spreads adjust, Hughes says. One of the reforms suggested is the creation of a new group of banks to give input to the rate, but ultimately, Hughes says, it will amount to the same structure.
Not that a reset of Libor will be completely business as usual. There are almost always unintended consequences to a change in regulation, Hughes says. “A little additional scrutiny is probably a good thing but a lot is not.” One possibility is that the “new” Libor could raise borrowing costs for banks, which could be passed onto borrowers. Again, in the case of the commercial real estate industry, that impact will be negligible, Hughes says. “Banks will always compete for business and they compete by adjusting their spread. That's what borrowers care about.”
Still, though, banks are facing a number of pressures, not the least of which is the ongoing Eurozone crisis, new credit- and risk-retention rules under Basel III and the possibility of the US going over the fiscal cliff. So far, it looks as though on the margins, Libor’s rate manipulation cuts into lenders’ returns, says Chandan—thus curtailing the availability of financing to some degree. If that were to continue, along with these other pressures, borrowers could start to feel a cause-and-effect.
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