WASHINGTON, DC-Will Congress push the US economy over the fiscal cliff? The answer is a disconcerting maybe: it recessed without an agreement, thus setting in motion the process to budget sequestration. Some observers believe it will be resolved during Congress’ lame duck session at the end of the year; other politically astute observers say it could very well not be. If sequestration does happen, Wall Street could go into shock—as of right now the possibility of sequestration has not been priced into the market, according to a new report from BlackRock.

Other industries are making similar calculations as the deadline nears, including the design and construction space. A study by the American Institute of Architects estimates that if Congress and the White House fail to reach an agreement on the federal budget it could result in $2 billion of lost work. “These are preliminary numbers but it is a good estimate of what could happen,” Andrew Goldberg, managing director, government relations and outreach for AIA, tells GlobeSt.com. “We took a deeper look at the various programs that provide funds for design, construction and building renovations and this is where it pencils in.” Specifically, AIA identified 48 separate budget accounts targeted for spending cuts that directly fund the design, construction and rehabilitation of buildings and other vertical infrastructure. These include the Department of Energy’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy program and the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Community Development Block Grant program.

Just about every agency, in fact, will be impacted. In the Department of Agriculture, to give one example, the Forest Service Capital Improvement and Maintenance funding will have $34 million carved out from its $410 million FY2013 budget. In Commerce Department, to give another, NIST Construction of Research Facilities funding will lose $5 million from its $56 million budget. NASA’s Construction, Environmental Compliance, and Remediation funds are slated to lose $32 million from a $385 million budget. AIA notes that the analysis is limited to direct spending. If other accounts were included, the impact on the build environment would likely be significantly higher. A separate study by the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis found that 61,483 federal jobs in architecture and engineering occupations are at risk from sequestration.