LONDON-From the pitiful to the sublime. In a phrase, that's the retail sector's trajectory over the next 10 years, according to the folks of Jones Lang LaSalle. Calling it the next wave of globalization, JLL researchers peg a huge boost for the former poster child of the recession, especially on the international front.

In fact, in it's Redefining Retail Investments, the firm projects that “annual investment volumes of retail property are expected to rise to US$160-180 billion by 2020, representing a 30-50% uplift on current levels. Cross-border activity is expected to account for half of this total, as global and regional players assert their dominance.”

The footing for this expansion has already been poured. From 2004 through 2012, direct investment in retail has slowly grown in the EMEA region as well as in Asia Pacific, while the statewide activity has remained relatively flat (see chart).

“The globalization of retail investment and the steady rise of inter-regional capital flows are underpinned by the activities of a relatively small group of global players,” the researchers say. “Investors and developer/operators, who are working to build global platforms across multiple continents.”

Sovereign wealth funds, institutions and private equity groups are all circling in the retail waters, players such as APG, Blackstone, CPPIB, GIC, Ivanhoé Cambridge, Morgan Stanley, Qatar Holding, Pramerica Real Estate Investors and TIAA-CREF. “They have all recently been growing their presence in the sector, targeting dominant shopping centers and portfolio opportunities.”

But that's not to rule out the mainstream retail players, and according to JLL, leading developer/operators such as Westfield, Simon Property Group, Lend Lease, Sonae Sierra and ECE – are deepening and extending their footprints across the globe, often led by or in tandem with their cross-border retailer tenants. Europe, China and Brazil have been at the forefront of this trend.