MIAMI—When a former Super Bowl MVP is in the executive ranks of your commercial real estate firm, you have to expect some rumbling around the big game. Jones Lang LaSalle and Roger Staubach, the firm's executive chairman of the Americas, are taking Super Bowl Sunday seriously.

So seriously, in act, that the commercial real estate firm is making a bold prognostication for the Super Bowl for the third year in a row. JLL predicts the Baltimore Ravens will outshine the San Francisco 49ers—and it has the stats it believes backs up the prediction.

Sports experts and Las Vegas oddsmakers look to point differentials, quarterback ratings and other on-the-field stats. Staubach and the JLL team are sticking with what they know best—commercial real estate—to determine their pick.

According to the firm's analysis of the last dozen season finale games, teams based in cities with the higher office vacancy rate have won the Lombardi Trophy. While the hypothesis didn't hold true last year when the New York Giants upset the New England Patriots, it does still have a 58% accuracy rate.

This year, according to JLL research, the overall vacancy rate in San Francisco stands at 11.8% due to a burgeoning demand from the technology sector compared to 15.5%in Baltimore, making the Ravens the firm's statistical favorite to win the crown.

Super Bowl VI MVP Staubach's mind agrees with JLL's hypothesis—but his heart doesn't. “I know commercial real estate and football,” he says. “While I can tell you that our hypothesis is right more than it's wrong, I really like the chances of the Forty-Niners.”

Instant Insights /

JLL: Office Vacancy Predicts Super Bowl Champ

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