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NEW YORK CITY-Call it the day of the REIT. And it looks like the day of distress is largely over. Those were some of the thoughts Real Capital Analytics chief Bob White shared with us in an exclusive interview on the heels of the locally based firm's release of its monthly US Capital Trends.
Make no mistake, the distress is still out there, but the tide of maturities is finally going out, says the analyst. But the real story in the opening weeks of 2013 is the way investors—and more specifically REIT investors—have come out punching. January saw a $15.5-billion transaction volume, according to the report.
That's a surprise in itself, says White, given the typical year-end push to close investment deals and the expected lull the push leaves in its wake. January was actually ahead of the levels hit a year ago. When the numbers are tallied for February, White says, you should expect a continuation of the trend.
A good chunk of that volume was at the hands of REITs, who are now spending the fruits of their prolonged capital raise and seeking deals in one-offs, mergers and portfolio buys. Or as the report puts it: “growing portfolio activity, including REIT M&A, already appears to be a trend going forward.”
Another segment that's making its presence felt are foreign investors, including SWFs, driven to the US market by the ongoing troubles at home. As shaky “as the US market may look from the inside,” says White, “to foreign investors it looks so much better than their own.”
And quietly, but inevitably, the Canadians. “They're quiet because they typically buy a minority stake, 49%.” It's the majority players who get the press, White points out.
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