NEW YORK CITY-Well, the problem could be worse. But while most of 2013 is being seen as a replay of 2012, the lurching recovery is expected to come to full bloom later this year resulting in serious price increases. The trick then for commercial real estate investors will be when to pull the trigger.

“There's turbulence in the market as it relates to investment conviction,” says Ron Dickerman, president of Manhattan-based Madison International Realty. “It's a tale of two worlds. On the one hand you have a sluggish US economy that hasn't proven it can create jobs. You've got a fiscal cliff and you've got a Euro crisis that's creating a lot of stagnation.”

But there's also the general sense, especially in the commercial real estate market, that things are starting, as Dickerman says, “to warm up. We're reading about some very big plays, like 237 Park and 75 Rock Center. These are big bets with underwritten returns based on rental rate growth, occupancy enhancement, tenant retention and the continuation of low interest rates and no cap-rate expansion.”

In the core markets, Dickerman's playground, class A assets are highly sought after. “I say it's a challenging investment environment because you have to make big, bold bets in order to be the high bidder. Look what happened with the Sony building. To make those numbers work, you have to go through a change of use , a conversion to resi or hotel. This is a huge bet that in my opinion has as much a chance of losing money as it does making a fine economic return.

“If you're sitting on the sidelines, there's pressure to get in now,” he continues. “Prices will be higher two or three years from now. And that bodes well for investment results. The problem is the competition and so much capital looking to buy the same deals.

"You have to make fairly foolhardy bets on your underwriting to be the high bidder," he continues. "The assets being bought now are going to be sold in five or seven years. So the question is what will the environment look like in five years. Cap rate expansion can evaporate value a lot faster than rents can grow. So it's challenge.”

The word is caution. Now might be the time to strike, but strike with an open eye, concludes Dickerman.