PHOENIX-During the Great Recession and it fallout financial aftermath, land lay more or less fallow in the metro area. With single-family homes falling into foreclosure and commercial development in all sectors at a standstill, acreage and land parcels didn't budge.
What a difference a few years makes. Colliers International's 2nd Half of 2012 Land Report Notes point to increasing land sales momentum and higher prices for that land. In conjunction with that, Colliers experts tell GlobeSt.com that 2013 should see even more land sales velocity – at least when it comes to single-family homes, multifamily developments and, to an extent, industrial product.
While improvement was anticipated, Pete O'Neil, Colliers' research manager, acknowledges that the improvement's extent was a pleasant surprise. "It is bouncing back stronger than anticipated," he adds.
According to the report, the median price for land used in industrial development increased by 43% year-over-year, while the median price for other commercial land increased by 51%. The report points out that permitting activity for single-family and multifamily building increased in 2012 (though permit issuance volumes are down at least 50% from levels recorded 10 years ago). Still, single-family permits in 2012 increased more than 60% from 2011 levels, while in the multifamily sector, more than 3,700 units were permitted in 2012 versus 1,700 units in 2011 and 500 in 2010. This has led to some interesting land grabs in the multifamily sector.
In one recent transaction, Mark-Taylor Capital LLC and partner Kitchell Development Co. acquired 30 acres in Temple, AZ, near the southwest corner of Warner Road and Priest Drive for $11 million. The goal is the development of the 590-unit San Sonoma, a two-phase multifamily project. Brent Moser, Mike Sutton and Brooks Griffith with Cassidy Turley Arizona's Land Group represented the buyer during the two-phase sales transaction.
Colliers' senior vice president John Finnegan, speaking on the single-family home front, points out that jobs creation in the metro area has led to boosted consumer confidence, and buyers interested in moving from starter homes to second homes. Much of the land sales activity, he points out, took place in Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria and Scottsdale – in other words, infill areas. "You'll see more of this, but away from the core in 2013," he predicts, pointing to Goodyear and Queen Creek as sites to watch when it comes to land trades.
On the commercial side, land demand won't be quite as prevalent – except, of course, when it comes to multifamily projects. "We average approximately 5,000 units a year in new multifamily developments," O'Neil explains. "In 2010, we did 500." The units delivered in 2011-2012 did add some much-needed product to the area, but there is more demand. As such, "land acquisition for multifamily developments is something we anticipate going forward," O'Neil remarks.
The other area that could see a boost in land exchanges in 2013 is industrial, though O'Neil and Finnegan point out that industrial developers are likely to take more of a "wait-and-see" approach when it comes to pure speculative developments on such land. Furthermore, preleasing to get a project off the ground will still be more the rule, than the exception. As such, though commercial land prices will likely increase, they won't spike as much as they will on the residential side.
"We are, for the most part, still in a position in which it's tough to justify new development for commercial space," O'Neil observes, adding that infill remains attractive. As such, there will be more activity than last year. "The general consensus is that the market is improving," O'Neill remarks. "The upswing will prevail, though I don't think it'll be widespread or rapid. I think it will be more gradual and selective."
© Touchpoint Markets, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more inforrmation visit Asset & Logo Licensing.