CANNES-The cleanest dirty shirt in the closet. Channeling Johnny Cash, that's how Chris Ludeman, president of CBRE Capital Markets, describes the US. Foreign investors see it as a safe haven, he says, despite the concerns, concerns such as the Congressional stalemate, a $13-trillion debt and a 30% FIRPTA tax.
In fact, in a recent AFIRE survey of its global membership, 39% indicated greater confidence about investing in the states than a year ago. And among favored places for investment bets, four of the five top cities were in the US: New York City, Washington, DC; San Francisco; and Houston.
(Cushman & Wakefield has just released it's International Investment Atlas, revealing that the global property investment market saw a modest 6% rise in activity during 2012 with volumes reaching US$929 billion.)
“We're seeing foreign capital on the ground and active,” says Ludeman. “Cap rates are back to 2007 levels, and we expect to see significant rent growth ahead in office and industrial. Retail will eventually catch up.”
But, “without the concerns, we'd see a lot more capital,” according to James Fetgatter, chief executive of AFIRE. Potential investors from overseas tell him that they've “spent a million dollars on legal fees trying to figure out how to invest in the US.”
For Ludeman, the first question he gets is about taxation, and despite all of the talk of FIRPTA reform, “nothing has been done,” adds Fetgatter.
Despite all of he concerns, the US remains the international investment sweet spot, so much so that “foreign investors are riding out on the risk curve,” says USAA global research chief Will McIntosh. “While they're focused on gateway markets, they're being forced to look at other possibilities to obtain the yields they're looking for.” Alternatives such as secondary and tertiary cities.
Ludeman advises not to paint all foreign investors with the same brush, indicating that different players, just as in the US, want different results. While sovereign wealth funds are looking more for the predictability of core, “Israeli investors are more yield-driven and will go farther out on the risk curve.”
The point is, that whatever the parameters, most foreign money will find placement in the US—despite the problems.
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