NEW YORK CITY-Although the residential and retail markets are breaking records for their prices and only the paucity of product is keeping the number of transactions from exploding further, there is some concern about the recovery of the office market with a number of industry reports showing the volume of leases and rental rates softening slightly.
This follows news about businesses not creating jobs fast enough, or spending capital. However, these reports ignore the underlying strength of the New York City office market. In fact, we have seen similar reports over the last couple of decades of a softening office market and its subsequent decline, that never came to fruition.
First and foremost, New York City remains the international financial, cultural and educational capital of the United States and, probably, the world. No one can walk the crowded streets of Manhattan hearing dozens of different languages without realizing the truth of this statement. Second, notwithstanding the talk of new alliances among the BRIC countries and the possibility of replacing the dollar as the medium of currency for international transactions (a dream of the International Monetary Fund), but that does not reflect the underlying comfort that the industrialized powers have in the US economy and the ultimate strength of the dollar.
This comfort comes from a rarely acknowledged recognition that, notwithstanding our differences between red states and blue states and the different visions that our citizens have of the future that politicians attempt to stir up to generate campaign contributions and votes, we are still one people and the recent response to the tragic events in Boston demonstrate the truth of Thomas Jefferson's comment 212 years ago, "we are all republicans, we are all federalists." In fact, history has repeatedly demonstrated that our differences make us stronger.
So the US will remain a dominant world power and New York City will remain its business center. And, all those businesses need office space. Just because rents are significantly below 2007 levels, does not mean that they will not return to that level or close to it in the not too distant future. Every day global businesses are opening New York offices because they are not a global business unless they have an active office in New York City. Every day large internet companies and new media companies are also opening headquarters in New York City. All of this activity will continue to strengthen the market.
In addition, unlike every other industrialized country, the population of the US continues to grow and unlike every other northern and eastern state, the population of New York City continues to grow. In less than a quarter of a century, the population of the US will be 400 million and the population of New York City will be approaching 10 million and the office space will be in heavy demand to serve this bigger economy. In addition, a great deal of the class B and C space will need to be replaced long before that date. Finally, all of the activity by the Fed in QE-2 and 3 is going to create a great deal of inflation, even if it is not apparent now, and there is nothing safer to own than hard assets. Therefore, if given a choice between buying stock or office buildings, the later is better long term investment.
Stuart Saft is a partner at Holland & Knight. The views expressed in this column are the author's own.
© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.