LOS ANGELES-A study funded by the NAIOP Research Foundation concludes that bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US from overseas does not lead to net jobs growth.

The report, "Stabilization of the U.S. Manufacturing Sector and Its Impact on Industrial Real Estate," was released today at NAIOP's I.con: The Industrial Conference, being held at the Omni Hotel through tomorrow. The report is authored by L. Nicolas Ronderos of the Regional Plan Assn. and funded by the NAIOP Research Foundation.

The NAIOP Research Foundation is a 501(c)3 organization created to support the work of individuals and organizations engaged in real estate development, investment and operations. The Foundation's core purpose is to provide these individuals and organizations with research information on how real properties, especially office, industrial, retail and mixed-use properties, impact and benefit communities throughout North America.

The latest report, derived from government reports and other public sources, indicates that some industries will add jobs as others shed them, resulting in no change to the total number of manufacturing jobs. However, such so-called “onshoring” halts a decades-long trend of the US losing more jobs than adding them. The report says the manufacturing sector is expected to plateau at an employment level of roughly 11 million jobs between now and 2020. That's after losing six million jobs between 2000 and 2010.

“Employment stabilization across the manufacturing sector bodes well for the overall economy and creates opportunity for real estate,” said Thomas J. Bisacquino, NAIOP president and CEO. “Rising wages in countries like China, increasing global transportation costs and political instability abroad are all factors affecting the decision to remain or return to the United States.”

While industrial-related jobs are projected to stabilize, service-based jobs are expected to grow on a net basis. The result is that 20 million net new jobs are projected to be created in the United States between 2013 and 2002, compared to a slight loss of about five million jobs between 2000 and 2010.

Between 2010 and 2020, industries generating low labor products, such as chemicals and technology, are expected to expand, and industries generating more labor intensive products, such as apparel, are likely to contract.

The top five expanding industries were measured by their anticipated increase in square footage allocated from 2013-2020 and the regions that would have the most expansion. They include fabricated metal product manufacturing (an increase of 86.5 million square feet in the Great Lakes and Southeast); plastics and rubber products manufacturing (up 61.5 million square feet in the Great Lakes and Southeast); wood product manufacturing (gaining 45.2 million square feet in the Southeast and Far West); nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing (up 32.8 million square feet in the Southeast and Great Lakes); and furniture and related product manufacturing (gaining 25.8 million square feet in the Southeast and Great Lakes).

Conversely, the top five contracting industries by space usage anticipated in 2013-2020, measured by the decrease in square footage and regions affected, include computer and electronic product manufacturing (decreasing 35.5 million square feet in the Far West and Mideast); chemical manufacturing (decreasing 30.3 million square feet in the Great Lakes and Southeast); apparel manufacturing (down 22.2 million square feet in the Southeast and Far West); textile mills and textile products (losing 19.4 million square feet in the Southeast and Far West); and paper manufacturing (down 19.1 million square feet in the Southeast and Great Lakes).

A geographic shift is expected to metropolitan areas, the report notes, as companies select more strategic locations that decrease transportation costs and locate closer to consumers and skilled labor.

“As a result, the onshoring trend will not be felt evenly across the United States,” said Bisacquino. “The opportunity for real estate is for regions with expanding industries to be prepared with skilled workforces to fulfill the job demand and facilitate the development of the necessary infrastructure and buildings.”

As previously reported by GlobeSt.com, a highlight of Thursday's NAIOP I.con will be a discussion on "The Future of Industrial Infill Development," led by Bradley Cox, senior managing director of Trammell Crow Co.