NEW YORK CITY-With new job numbers out this past Friday, confirmation comes through yet again that the economy is progressing at a snail's pace. Economist Mark Zandi is expressing his frustration with the slow pace of the recovery, calling the growth performance “disappointing.”

In his most recent report, The US Macro Outlook: The Road to Normal, the Moody's Analytics economist does nevertheless find some factors that warrant a degree of cautious optimism. One of those is the result of the much-touted government sequestration, and he notes that the cutback program “and other spending cuts,” have had little impact on the job market as whole.

The economist is buoyed up by the private-sector economy and what he terms “the surprising strength” it has displayed since the withdrawal of federal support. “Fortunately, the private sector has stepped up as the government has pulled back,” he says. “In 2009, the private sector shrank by an amount equal to 5.5 percentage points of GDP.” By contrast, the private side is now in a strong growth mode, he says, to the tune of 3.5 percentage points of GDP. “Consumers and business are doing their part to support the recovery.”

In fact, Zandi believes that the hand-off from government support to growth led by the private sector is “going better than anticipated.” He attributes this in large part to the relatively minor impact sequestration has had to date.

“This augurs well for the recovery after the fiscal drag moderates later this year,” he predicts. “Under current law, which the deadlocked Congress and administration are unlikely to change, federal policy will subtract about half as much from growth in 2014 as it will this year, and the effect will be all but gone by mid-decade.

“Lawmakers this summer need to authorize funding for the government once the fiscal year ends in September,” Zandi continues, “and to raise the Treasury debt limit again. Given the rising political costs, however, this seems likely to happen without as much brinkmanship as in the recent past.”

He predicts that the Fed will “return short-term interest rates to a normal 4% by 2017,” and that interest rates will remain at the current rock-bottom levels until “the job market heals.”